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>80% of results by 6 months prove me wrong


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  • Regular Member
15 hours ago, Alfred said:

What is the reason ?

Not taking medication.
However everyone’s circumstances are different. If you’re a young person getting a HT then I’ll say medication is essential. If you’re older with a stable / established hair loss pattern you potentially can get away with not taking  it. 

Edited by baldbandito
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On 9/7/2022 at 9:15 AM, jxlegend said:

So far, every transplant I have seen has acheived >80% of final results/density by 6 months. Sure, length increases, follicles "soften", mature, whatever and give the illusion of "more", but after 6 months, improvements seem to only be marginal.

 

I will amend this statement: Crown grows slower, can't comment on crown growth maturity timeline.

I can't prove it because I didn't take progress photos but I can tell you I saw lots of growth from month 6 to 12 and then it went from good to great between month 12 and 18.

 2,000 grafts FUT Dr. Feller, July 27th 2012. 23 years old at the time. Excellent result. Need crown sorted eventually but concealer works well for now.

Propecia and minoxidil since 2010. Fine for 8 years - bad sides after switching to Aindeem in 2018.

Switched to topical fin/minox combo from Minoxidil Max in October 2020, along with dermarolling 1x a week.

Wrote a book for newbies called Beating Hair Loss, available on Amazon

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Do people really see new hairs push through beyond 6 months?
It seems like doubles & triples grow in the same position as the existing hairs but that's about it.  Everything else is the hair maturing.

Edited by SeanToman
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4 minutes ago, SeanToman said:

Do people really see new hairs push through beyond 6 months?
It seems like doubles & triples grow in the same position as the existing hairs but that's about it.  Everything else is the hair maturing.

I don't think new hairs necessarily pop through that late, but the growth and maturity of those hairs definitely imo isn't 80% by 6 months for most. I'd say 8-12 months can even have visible difference for people. 

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On 9/10/2022 at 6:46 AM, SeanToman said:

Do people really see new hairs push through beyond 6 months?
It seems like doubles & triples grow in the same position as the existing hairs but that's about it.  Everything else is the hair maturing.

In my situation I am now at 7.5 months post of. I can definitely feel a few more new hairs still coming out of the scalp (in the mid section and crown). But nothing like say from months 3-6. All the best!

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On 9/10/2022 at 9:44 PM, Adier said:

Kinda off topic but is it natural for uneven growth. Like the left side grows a bit faster than the right side or vice versa?

Yes from what I've read.  Some hairs grow faster because they are closer to blood vessels than others are.

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You can never benchmark it at 6 months. There are some freaks that grow at 6 months. Here’s an example of a late grower 6 months vs. 18 months. There are outliers who grow 90% by 6 months and outliers who grow 20%. Overall, its 50% for most people.

2FA16F32-9359-4246-B09D-72ED602692C4.jpeg


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There is a huge misconception between the percentage of hair that popped out and the percentage of final visual effect (maturation and proper length of hair). Probably after 7 months most grafts will pop out, so if at that stage there are significantly less grafts visible in comparison to the number that was implanted then there is a high chance that something went wrong. However, it doesn't mean that it is the final result; hair will mature and get longer so skin coverage will be greater and hence visual effect will get better.

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2 hours ago, Melvin- Moderator said:

You can never benchmark it at 6 months. There are some freaks that grow at 6 months. Here’s an example of a late grower 6 months vs. 18 months. There are outliers who grow 90% by 6 months and outliers who grow 20%. Overall, its 50% for most people.

2FA16F32-9359-4246-B09D-72ED602692C4.jpeg

Lightning is definitely different but that doesn't even look like the same person with how much mote dense the hairline is on the right. 

I can only dream my own results dial in over time as good as that. Hell, hopefully even at 12 months rather than 18 months. I'm heading towards Month 4 shortly and it's definitely still a key testing period mentally and why i disagree so much result is already done as stated in OP by 6 months. 

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  • Senior Member
On 9/12/2022 at 6:22 PM, NARMAK said:

Lightning is definitely different but that doesn't even look like the same person with how much mote dense the hairline is on the right. 

I can only dream my own results dial in over time as good as that. Hell, hopefully even at 12 months rather than 18 months. I'm heading towards Month 4 shortly and it's definitely still a key testing period mentally and why i disagree so much result is already done as stated in OP by 6 months. 

He said 6 months was the 80% range, which I think is true.  Especially if you're talking about grafts sprouting.  Probably the vast majority of grafts that are going to sprout will sprout by 6 months.  Not even being at the 4 month mark you likely have lots of improvement between now and the 6 month mark.  After that, it's pretty much just thickening/maturation and the hair becoming long enough to match the length of the rest of your hair (assuming you're like most and have medium length hair).  That all probably accounts for 20% improvement, which is not insignificant, but certainly the bulk of progress is seen by the 6 month mark in most cases.  Especially on a virgin scalp when the hair is transplanted only into the hairline.  Lastly, given that the first 80% of improvement occurs in roughly a 3 month span, the final 20% taking 4-6 months means the improvement is much slower and less noticeable, which probably lessens the extent that people notice it in real time (which is exacerbated by the rapid growth that immediately preceded it).

Edited by John1991
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4 hours ago, John1991 said:

He said 6 months was the 80% range, which I think is true.  Especially if you're talking about grafts sprouting.  Probably the vast majority of grafts that are going to sprout will sprout by 6 months.  Not even being at the 4 month mark you likely have lots of improvement between now and the 6 month mark.  After that, it's pretty much just thickening/maturation and the hair becoming long enough to match the length of the rest of your hair (assuming you're like most and have medium length hair).  That all probably accounts for 20% improvement, which is not insignificant, but certainly the bulk of progress is seen by the 6 month mark in most cases.  Especially on a virgin scalp when the hair is transplanted only into the hairline.  Lastly, given that the first 80% of improvement occurs in roughly a 3 month span, the final 20% taking 4-6 months means the improvement is much slower and less noticeable, which probably lessens the extent that people notice it in real time (which his exacerbated by the rapid growth that immediately preceded it).

If that's the actual way OP meant like you've broken down, then it's possible you could argue it that way. I still don't think it's 100% true for maybe that high a % but maybe if we average if out, we could say 50% or more see that happen. 

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After looking at a large number of cases, you do get a "sense" of whether one is one track at 6 months vs a bit behind or ahead. I'm not sure about the 50% at 6 months, 100% at a year time frame, it might be a bit more sigmoidal the response curve. 

But the question is kind of meaningless unless we define our semantics. What I mean is, how do we define "percentage"? Percentage of what? Of final hairs grown? Of hair shaft caliber? Of the "illusion of density"? How do we measure an illusion?

I think most hairs have come in by 6 months but are thin. Some people sooner, others later. Caliber and texture ensue, and can enhance the illusion dramatically. This is because an expanding fat cylinder covers several times more area visually than a thin one. The path of this coverage probably looks like a sigmoidal curve, with thinner haired people crossing the asymptote later than thicker haired people.

 

image.png.7ccfa8fbadfb27dbf0c371f723158155.png

I think you're closer to the beginning part of the curve then the later at 6 months because caliber means more proportionately.

But until an accurate AI algorithm comes along that can objectively grade an illusion, studies are limited by how the researcher subjectively feels. Interesting idea though.

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Edited by consequence
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