Is it possible to predict hair loss?

[Mike10]

Hi, I wonder whether you have any thougts on the below. 

I recently did 2 consultations with 2 reputable HT surgeons. Keep in mind that both consultations were completely independant. I won't reveal the names as this information is confidentiial. Both Drs estimated that I am a NW2 and recommended roughly around 1500 grafts. I am 40 years and on PRP since several years. Both Drs indicated that, despite not being on medication, they see hair loss progression as a lesser concern in my case.  They thought that I will likely end up as a NW3 in 20-30 years. Such assessment was based on a wide variety of factors., I can't remember them all but I think it was: age, current NW status, hair quality, hair density, level of miniaturiziation,  photos of myself at different stages and familiy history. They did advise continuation of PRP.  

[didu911]

It is never 100% predictable, but anamnesis in combination with your age and degree of loss is a reference point. Still nobody can guarantee. 

[ciaus]

Nope, and if it was the person that came up with it would be very rich and famous. All we know now is not everyone ends up as a nw 6 or 7 with a questionable or inadequate donor. So if you've got the money and enough luck of the genetic draw to have a slower and less severe loss pattern than those guys, its possible to maintain adequate coverage throughout your lifetime with just additional transplants. 

How much better doing PRP is than doing nothing is probably not much, considering how long its been around and how few people do it. But if you've got the money to spare there could also be a placebo effect you are benefiting from as long as you keep the faith.

 

 

[pkipling]

There's no way to "predict hair loss" with 100% certainty, but the factors they mentioned are definitely worth considering and can be a good indicator as to where you likely could be heading. I think all doctors must consider this on some level, whether they use that specific language or not. The point of the consultation is to determine if you're a good candidate for a HT and to come up with a longterm game plan that will give you the best odds of longterm results, and so they're going to use a specific set of criteria for how they determine what they think is the best approach. And while it's not a perfect science, taking into account someone's age, current Norwood level, genetics, family history, hair type, hair density, and miniaturization levels is a very reasonable way to make an assessment. And so if you have multiple surgeons recommending similar approaches, that's likely a good sign. 

[Rahal Hair Transplant]

Mike10,

I mentioned this before  in another post but there is actually a product out there called HairDX.  HairDX is a genetic hair lost test  that allegedly can predict whether or not an individual will experience male pattern baldness. Now, this apparently only predicts whether or not you will actually or eventually experience it if you have not yet experienced it. However, it will not give you any data on how much hair loss you will experience.

Note that I have no affiliation with this product so I have no idea how effective or accurate it is but it may be worth a shot for those who have not yet experienced hair loss but are worried about it or at risk of experiencing it  

Alternatively, seeking out a dermatologist or trichologist can be a guide in determining whether or not you’re currently experiencing hair loss and family history of hair loss can help you determine approximately how far it may advance.

I hope this helps.

Rahal Hair Transplant

Edited May 14, 2022 by Rahal Hair Transplant

[NARMAK]

With medication like Finasteride, Dutasteride and products like Minoxodil out there, if you are on them with proper adherence the  it makes it even harder imo to predict what hair loss somebody would experience just based on looking at their family members and how extensive their loss was if they never used anything. 

For example, your father may be like a Norwood 2/3 in his 30s to 40s and then end up like a Norwood 5/6 in his 50s/60s yet had this individual taken Finasteride or Dutasteride, there's a strong possibility they may have stayed around a Norwood 3 or slipped to a 4 only. 

That's why imo it's become a little more redundant just using family history to track potential patient baldness and we need a more tailored approach that includes checking the medication somebody takes as well as the time passed, their response on it and then also maybe check family history as a small corner with the other aspect being a microscopic evaluation to see how much hair is miniaturised. 

[Mike10]

Thanks for your helpful replies. The clinics also presented it more as an educated guess than as factual information. Anyways, I have decided to move forward with the HT now. I am going skip the medication and stick with the PRP. My gut feeling is that with 1 procdure and then another procedure down the line, I will be set for a very long time. I dow have MPB though but it is only a mild form, the typical corner recession in the front. 

Edited May 15, 2022 by Mike10