What do you guys make of this comment?

[dakota3]

Original comment by Dr. Humayun

"All most 70% of people with type III and IV at age of 27 to 30 will be Type VII by 45 to 50 yrs"

[dakota3]

Original comment by Dr. Humayun

"All most 70% of people with type III and IV at age of 27 to 30 will be Type VII by 45 to 50 yrs"

[Bill - Seemiller]

dakota,

 

I'd say it's a logical statement, but I'm not sure where the percentage is coming from.

 

Perhaps Dr. Mohmand can point us to clinical studies on this or where he's getting the statistics.

 

As a general rule however, I'd suggest that men who suffer hair loss early are at higher risk of experiencing extensive hair loss.

 

Best wishes,

 

Bill

[HairHope]

since Propecia and Rogaine 5% I would say that statement is outdated.

[Maxxy]

No idea if Dr. Humayun numbers are correct but I also think Rogaine and Propecia will lose their effectiveness long before 20 years of usage, so the 2 drugs shouldn't really alter his statements.

[young_guy123]

This is the most discouraging stat I've ever heard. I hope it's incorrect!

[hopefull]

I ve been saying this for years, what if drugs fail to hold on to the hair you have and you had a transplant too early in the game...if you end up nw7 even the scar might start to show!!!

 

 

i raised this concern once to jotronic and his answer was "its time for you to prove these claims"?!?!...i think its a very real concern the future loss and in a few years time we will start having more and more cases of people being dissatisfied if they had their transplants too early in the game packing up their nw3 loss with thousands of grafts

 

I say this and i will say it again, we are on our own in this decision and we better be sure that we know what we are doing because noone really knows what our future loss will be or how drugs will hold on to the hair in the future.

 

Fierce competition between certain doctors for the best results have made them push the envelope much further than our donor

 

I think we brought this on ourselves years ago by praising the wrong results without questioning the future loss...or by wanting a full head of hair when our donor can only offer so much.

[mmhce]

70% of people with type III and IV at age of 27 to 30 will be Type VII by 45 to 50 yrs

 

I agree with what Bill says. It is logical and the earlier you start to loose hair the more extensive your hairloss will be.

 

What I would like to know is where he got the stats?

 

And on a personal note, by age 50, hairloss would not be that much of a concern to mean. I am content to have a NW3 at age 50.

[dakota3]

since Propecia and Rogaine 5% I would say that statement is outdated

 

This statement would hold up if rogaine and propecia worked forever, however propecia loses it's effectivness after several years and rogaine just slows the process down it seems.

 

I think that people who have hairloss young and eventually progress to a NW7 have to hope that a "cure" is around the corner.

[Eman]

Interesting comments and also a concern I had going into this whole HT thing. I had always wanted a one and done procedure, but you never know how much hair loss you will ultimately have. So, I know at some point down the road I may need to have more.

 

My thoughts about having a procedure were simply, since I had somewhat stabilized in terms of hair loss and the fact that I had more loss than all of my male family members and I didn't want to be bald anymore, I would fill in the balding area now by a top doc and ENJOY the new head of hair for the next X-number of years (hopefully an unrealistic 30+ years ).

 

At that point in the future, like it has been said, the technology will (keeping my collective fingers crossed) hopefully be there to fill in the gaps of additional loss.

 

And to be honest, I get to have a head of hair in my 30's rather than be "the bald guy". So, I will enjoy this period of time and plan accordingly should I lose a lot more.

[Petchski]

Hey Eman, just been looking on your blog again. It rules, but no month 5 photos on it.

 

I've come across guys on propecia and rogaine for 12+ years with no loss from when they started, and had pictures to back up what they said.

 

Also, I believe I've read a stat, can't remember where, that states only 8% of the population ever become a Norwood 7, it quite rare. Nevertheless, still worth thinking about and i'm sure we can hold out 30+ years with treatments and transplants.

[Dewayne]

I would agree that's logical. I think that's why it's critical for young guys to plan for hair loss.

 

I sat in the chair first at 25, and I'm thankful the doctor chose to go above my then hairline by about 1 inch. He said he "didn't want me to come looking for him in 10 years" when I receded more. He was right, too. Those plugs would have looked really stupid down on the top of my forehead at 35.

 

That's why I'm for multiple sessions, unless you're older. Have a transplant of 2,000 or so at 25; another 2,000 at 35; and then try and finish it off at 45. That way you get a more natural look, imo.

 

Over 40? Go for a mega session properly planned for any future loss.

[youngsuccess]

This is what Rassman had to say:

 

"Actually, men who become a full Norwood Class 7 balding pattern usually have significant balding by the time they are in their early 20s. If the balding is mild at 30, chances are that the balding will not be advanced as you get older."

 

I don't know about the second point, but the argument that most men who progress to the extreme class of Norwood 7 experience most of the loss before 30 is consistent with what I have read and seen. I have one friend who is 30 and is currently a NW6 bordering on 7. He was pushing NW4 at age 19.

 

If most 30 year old guys with relatively mild balding (Norwood 3) progress to NW7, the percentage of NW7s would be a lot higher than only 7%. Since in many cases NW7s are considered poor candidates for transplants, this would suggest that a lot of people are fucked. We see a lot of patients around 30 without extensive hair loss undergoing transplants; I can't imagine that all the doctors posting those types of cases here believe that these patients are heading towards class 7.

[dakota3]

Quote by Dr. Rassman

"Actually, men who become a full Norwood Class 7 balding pattern usually have significant balding by the time they are in their early 20s. If the balding is mild at 30, chances are that the balding will not be advanced as you get older

 

Now Im a bit confused! You have 2 doc's in the same profession saying 2 different things. That's like 1 mechanic saying you need new brakes and another saying you need new tires.

[mmhce]

I would be inclined to believe Dr. Rassman.

[MrJobi]

As everyone is different I think it is impossible to generalize to 100%. with that being said it doesnt take a rocket scientist to realize that if you are thinning in your 30's the chances are it will continue to worsen as you age.. As far as med are concerned, I have been on propecia since its inception & I have seen no loss of effectiveness.

 

If you are losing your hair the chances are very likely it is going to continue to progress as you age .. We see this over and over again..

[youngsuccess]

Agreed. But no one is disputing that hair loss is progressive; we just don't understand how relatively mild loss in late 20s/early 30s indicates an eventual class 7 pattern, the most extreme level of MPB. I don't know that the degree to which the balding will advance can be determined in a 30 year old with a NW3 pattern who might not even have any signs of crown loss whatsoever. Plenty of NW6s won't progress past that point, and a lot of guys start to approach that level way before 45-50.

 

Arguing that men who begin hair loss at 30 are likely to experience more is entirely different from specifically predicting NW7, as even the difference between NW6 and 7 is huge.

[imissthebarber]

This might be stating the obvious, but if the scar ever starts to show that is really bad news. It means hairs from that region are not MPB resistant so transplanted hairs from that area would also fall out. Depending on how the hairs were mixed and matched when they were put in to the recipient area, this could result in really weird hair loss patterns in the recipient zone.

 

Could it be possible that Dr. Humayun and Rassman disagree over where a NW6 ends and a NW7 starts?

 

 

If most 30 year old guys with relatively mild balding (Norwood 3) progress to NW7, the percentage of NW7s would be a lot higher than only 7%.

I agree with this. Some people are NW7 by age 30 so there's a portion of your 7% straight off then there is all the NW6 and NW5's at 30 as well who must be more likely to reach NW7.

[dakota3]

Could it be possible that Dr. Humayun and Rassman disagree over where a NW6 ends and a NW7 starts?

 

Dr. Humayun knows more about NW7's then anyone here IMO. That's all you see him poting for results.

[mmhce]

So dakota, are you inclined to believe Dr. Humayun?

 

I rarely review his work. Does he do good work at help the NW7s and what is his advice in terms of aiding those who are NW3s which he thinks may progress to NW7?

[Cam Simmons MD ABHRS]

These numbers don't fit with my experience or with "Norwood's study of 1000 men by type and age", as published in Unger's textbook.

 

In Norwood's study, 6% of men had 'Type III' (Stage 3) loss before 30 and 3% of men had Stage 4 loss before 30. (Total for both stages = 9%). 11% of men between 70 and 79 had Stage 7 loss in contrast to only 3 % of men between 40 and 49. If you assume that more men aged 45-49 will have N7 loss than those aged 40-44, you could argue that over a third of men with N3-4 loss before 30 will have N7 loss before 50. It isn't quite as scary as the quote attributed to Dr. Humayan but it is scary enough.

 

Most people with AGA probably start losing hair at puberty but don't notice it until their mid-to-late 20s or older. It is safest to assume that the earlier you see hair loss, the higher the chance you have of losing a lot of hair.

 

I always plan for the worst and hope for the best. That is I assume that everyone will stop taking or using their meds and that everyone with AGA in their 20s and 30s will eventually develop at least a Norwood 6 pattern and that some will get a Norwood 7 pattern. Some would argue that this is too cautious but it fits well with the medical philosophy 'First, do no harm.'

[youngsuccess]

you could argue that over a third of men with N3-4 loss before 30 will have N7 loss before 50. It isn't quite as scary as the quote attributed to Dr. Humayan but it is scary enough.

 

 

Thanks for your input; this sounds more accurate to me. So from your research it's still a possibility, but 35% is a helluva lot different than 70%.

[Petchski]

Thanks for the post Dr Simmons.

 

It sounds more realistic to me, also means i'm due to be a norwood 6 in later life, glad I went conservative with my H/T. Long live propecia, or hopefully something better in the future.

[Marvin]

I always just assumed that I was on track to be a NW7 because of how early I started losing my hair (before 20).

 

Honestly, it's what I am still expecting and mentally preparing myself to become. If Propecia works or if I stop naturally at NW6, well, great -- I won't complain!

[mmhce]

Thanks for the input Dr.Simmons!