Question about Predicting Future Hair Loss.

[corvettester]

I know that it's generally impossible to predict future hair loss for an individual; however, based on what we've all seen from others, is it reasonable to make a guess? From what I've seen here on the HTN, it seems like most of the men who become NW5/6 begin balding very early in their life. I read stories where they talk about being a NW4 when they were 22 or earlier.

 

Thus, is it reasonable to conclude that my chances of becoming a NW5/6 are slim considering the following facts: I'm currently a NW2/3. I'm 29 years old. Only history of MPB is my paternal grandfather. I do not and will not take Propecia or Rogaine. The rest of my hair feels strong and healthy. I'm otherwise a healthy individual.

 

I'm asking for two reasons:

 

First reason, I'd like to know how much of my donor hair I should invest in my hairline and frontal third. I've already had 1,696 grafts added to my hairline, temples and temple peaks, although none in the frontal third (by frontal third, I mean the area in the front of my head, just behind the hairline, but not the actual hairline or temples).

 

I'm thinking that I will add more to my hairline, temples and frontal third if the current HT doesn't give me the density that I want. So would it be crazy to double up and put another 1,600-2,000 grafts in the frontal third and also dense pack the hairline and temples?

 

The doctors initially estimated that I have around 8,000 potential graft available. After using 1,600 in my first HT, another 1,600-2,000 would equal close to half of my donor supply.

 

The second reason is that given that I refuse to take meds for the rest of my life, are the chances really so great that I'll progress into the NW5/6 levels which would require massive amounts of grafts to cover up? I mean, If I still have 4,000-4,500 grafts available in my donor area, shouldn't that be enough to cover up future balding or at least create the illusion of density considering that my hairline and frontal third will already have been taken care of with the first two HT?

 

They say that most men invest most of the grafts in the hairline and frontal third because that gives it the greatest cosmetic improvement. This is definitely the most important for me too. And just because I'm a NW2/3 now, that doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to get worse. Therefore, should I really be worried about progressing into NW5/6?

 

Let me know what you think and why. I've included some pics so you can get an idea of my situation. Bear in mind that I have always had a very high hairline. So what you see in the pics is how my hairline and temples were restored to their original. You can see plenty more of pics on my hair loss website or profile.

Edited October 22, 2011 by corvettester

[Blake Bloxham]

Corvettester,

 

You mention a very important term in your original question: 'unpredictable.' The unfortunate truth is that hair loss is a very unpredictable phenomenon, and it's truly difficult to say where your balding pattern will finally stabilize. Now, like you said before, it probably is 'reasonable' to make certain assumptions based upon your age, current level of recession, how long you have been losing hair, and so on, but I don't think I would put much stock into these notions. Furthermore, the general consensus I've gathered from the community is 'prepare for the worst, hope for the best.'

 

For example, if you're dealing with any sort of significant loss, you should probably chose therapies based upon the assumption that it will continue progressing. If this doesn't happen, then you're in a much better position than assuming you will only reach a certain point and then ending up with much more hair loss. Furthermore, I would really give some time and consideration to the idea of preventive methods like Propecia and Rogaine.

 

These therapies really do help stabilize your hair loss, and make these types of discussions pretty much moot. In my opinion, utilizing the combination of these medications with a hair transplant is a far safer option than trying to estimate how far your hair loss will progress, how many grafts you could potentially harvest (which assumes that your scalp will retain the same laxity after every procedure, that the operating surgeon won't change his mind overtime, that each result will meet your expectations, etc), and how you should go about multiple hair transplant procedures.