Sydney1

10 minutes ago, LordBaldwin said:

First of all, I don't think that's what my post showed.  If you're referring to the scatter plot and trend line I included... it only covers the last two years (as did the entire post).  Second, if you look at where the line actually goes (and assume it continues over the long term), the expected result is still between good and great where the data stops on the X-axis (around April/May 2018), albeit closer to "good" and further from "great" than it was 2 years ago.  Third, I think it's possible that there was an X-factor sometime in the second half of 2017 that may have caused some of the negative results that influenced the trend line; I don't presume to know what it was, nor do I assume that it still exists today.  This clinic has a very long track record and one iffy 6-month period isn't necessarily indicative of a long term worsening of quality. 

we can agree or disagree and leave it be, or we can keep going around in circles, we clearly do not agree and you have made up your mind, I wish you nothing but great results , i really do. I just pointed out the very clear fact that over the past 2 years satisfacation of results has clearly been declining, it is still above 3 and its a great, and you seem to be ok with that, and you have your assumptions about a mysterious X factor...... the analysis might need to get deeper homie. 

2 hours ago, LordBaldwin said:

I'm having a procedure done with ASMED in a couple of weeks and, like many of you, wanted a better idea of my chances of having a satisfactory result.  Since there have been many differing opinions on here concerning this clinic lately (and while it's a little tough to quantify something like this), I figured I'd try to tackle the question mathematically/statistically to produce a more definitive answer. 

Methodology for Analysis:

First, I went through the French, Italian, and English hair loss forums (i.e., international, Belli Capelli, and this forum, respectively), and looked through every result that was posted within the last 2 years (I went back to around September 2016).  

I recorded the approximate date (to the nearest month) that the surgery was performed and assigned a score for the result based on the pictures that were posted.  The ranking criteria were as follows:

- Great = A score of 4 = The result of the transplant was a very thick, natural looking head of hair; in my opinion, no further surgical intervention is required. 

- Good = A score of 3 = The result of the transplant was a major improvement over the pre-operative state, but not perfect; while the hair is generally thick, a minor touch-up may be required to achieve the optimal result.

- Mediocre = A score of 2 = The result of the transplant was a modest to moderate improvement over the pre-operative state; a second procedure of a similar magnitude will likely be required to achieve patient satisfaction.

- Poor = A score of 1 = A complete botch job.  The scalp looks effectively the same or worse than it did before surgery.  A second operation is absolutely required (and possibly a third) if there's any hope of salvaging the situation.  

- Inconclusive = No score = The result could not be determined due to the fact that the surgery was performed too recently (less than approximately 5 months ago) or the fact that the user did not continue to post their results/pictures beyond a few days/weeks/months.  There are some rare cases where a patient experienced a good result by the 5 or 6 month point and I felt comfortable including them in the analysis despite the fact that their hair has not fully matured.

Caveats:

- While there are many clinic-posted results in all three forums, I only included those from the Italian forum in this analysis (in other words, I only included patient-posted results from the French and English forums).  Why did I do this?  First, in the French and English forums, there was no indication as to when the clinic-posted surgeries were performed.  Second, the doctor likely only posted his best results, leading to a form of selection bias.  When patients post their own results, from start to finish, selection bias is less likely.  Third, I wanted to make sure I didn't double-count, so each patient had to have a unique identifier (and it was hard to assign one for clinic-posted results; for patient-posted results, on the other hand, I could differentiate them with their user names).  Please note that the omission of clinic-posted results might skew the results in such a way as to make them seem slightly more negative than they actually are.

- I realize that the ratings I assigned to each result are subjective.  I can't think of a way to do this in a truly objective way, as one person's "good" might be another's "mediocre."  For this reason, I'm willing to provide user names via PM in case there are any doubts concerning my judgment.

Analysis:

The chart below shows my findings from the three forums, combined, within the specified date range.  I removed the user names and replaced them with patient numbers to maintain anonymity.  As I mentioned above, if anyone wants to see the user names associated with the patient numbers in order to check me (or compare your judgments with my own), I can send them to you via PM.

Assigned Patient Number	Surgery Date	Result Rating
1	Sep-16	4
2	Oct-16	3
3	Oct-16	3
4	Oct-16	3
5	Nov-16	4
6	1-Nov	4
7	Nov-16	4
8	Nov-16	N/A
9	Nov-16	3
10	Dec-16	4
11	Jan-17	2
12	Feb-17	4
13	Feb-17	4
14	Feb-17	4
15	Feb-17	3
16	Feb-17	N/A
17	Feb-17	4
18	Feb-17	4
19	Feb-17	3
20	Mar-17	3
21	Mar-17	4
22	Mar-17	N/A
23	Apr-17	4
24	Apr-17	N/A
25	May-17	3
26	May-17	3
27	Jun-17	2
28	Jun-17	N/A
29	Jul-17	4
30	Jul-17	4
31	Jul-17	3
32	Jul-17	3
33	Jul-17	2
34	Jul-17	2
35	Jul-17	N/A
36	Aug-17	4
37	Aug-17	3
38	Aug-17	N/A
39	Sep-17	3
40	Sep-17	N/A
41	Sep-17	2
42	Oct-17	4
43	Oct-17	2
44	Oct-17	4
45	Oct-17	4
46	Oct-17	4
47	Oct-17	N/A
48	Nov-17	4
49	Nov-17	3
50	Nov-17	2
51	Nov-17	N/A
52	Nov-17	4
53	Nov-17	3
54	Dec-17	4
55	Dec-17	4
56	Dec-17	3
57	Dec-17	2
58	Dec-17	4
59	Dec-17	3
60	Dec-17	2
61	Dec-17	N/A
62	Dec-17	N/A
63	Jan-18	4
64	Jan-18	3
65	Jan-18	3
66	Jan-18	2
67	Jan-18	N/A
68	Jan-18	N/A
69	Feb-18	4
70	Feb-18	4
71	Mar-18	2
72	Mar-18	4
73	Mar-18	3
74	Mar-18	2
75	May-18	3
76	May-18	4
77	May-18	N/A
78	Jun-18	N/A
79	Jul-18	4
80	Jul-18	N/A
81	Jul-18	N/A
82	Jul-18	N/A
83	Jul-18	N/A
84	Aug-18	N/A
85	Sep-18	N/A
86	Sep-18	N/A
87	Sep-18	N/A
88	Sep-18	N/A
89	Sep-18	N/A
90	Oct-18	N/A
91	Oct-18	N/A
92	Oct-18	N/A
93	Oct-18	N/A
94	Oct-18	N/A
95	Oct-18	N/A
96	Oct-18	N/A
97	Nov-18	N/A
98	Nov-18	N/A
99	Nov-18	N/A
100	Nov-18	N/A

As you can see, I looked through 100 patient reviews between the three forums.  Out of the 100, only 63 were conclusive.

Out of the 63: 

- 48% were great

- 33% were good 

- 19% percent were mediocre

- 0% were poor 

 

For me, a result of good or great is acceptable.  Here's some more useful data:

- There is an 81% chance of an acceptable (i.e., good or great) result 

- Margin of error is 12% (with a confidence level of 95%)*

- Average is 3.3 (a result between good and great)

- Median is 3 (a good result)

- Mode is 4 (a great result)

- Standard deviation is 0.771

* I calculated margin of error by assuming that ASMED performs 4 surgeries per day, 5 days a week, 52 weeks a year, yielding a total population of 2,080 surgeries performed within this time frame (and, as shown above, a sample size of 63 patients).

I want to stress, again, that I excluded all clinic-posted results from the French and English forums, so outcomes may actually be better than what is posted above.

Another question that was recently raised was whether or not quality from this clinic has decreased over time.  In order to determine if this is the case, I plotted the results from above against time (see the plot below) and inserted a best-fit trend line (including a projection into the future, assuming the same trends continue to hold).

 

It does appear that there has been a slight degradation in quality for surgeries performed between September of 2016 and June of this year.  It looks like this degradation may have been caused by a cluster of negative reviews made by patients who had surgery between August and December of 2017 (though there were also many successful surgeries that occurred around this time as well).  I might do another analysis looking further back into the past to see if this trend remains the same, or if the second half of 2017 was a blip.

 

I don't know about you guys, but this made me feel a bit more confident about my upcoming surgery.  Any thoughts? 

 

thats awesome bro, well done. But I just want to point out the obvious here and what was one of the main topics of conversation at the beginning of this blog.... the quality of work has been getting worse and worse over the years as your chart clearly shows above.... that chart should have been going in the opposite direction....that alone should rock your confidence.

Payam can you compile a list collage of photos, a timeline of pre transplant and the latest photo being in december to give us all a god idea of progress, timeframe etc. Sorry If i have already an existing one. Cheers. 

cool. all reputable, why cinik? or erdogan? 

So who you got in mind ?

I think you would be looking at 2500 thousand at least to 3500 if you wanted extended density 

Dr Acar, no doubt. he is awesome, his team is awesome, 

well I have finally booked my procedure with Cosmedica, 

25 minutes ago, HT0416 said:

I'm trying to resolve things with Asmed. Its just taking time. 

I dont see why its getting into a debate. Im sharing my experience, how my transplants has gone. 

My hair has grown but in the wrong direction so hairs stick out also i have badly drawn hairline. Some will say its a successful hair transplant, to me it is certainly is not.

I didn't get this done to advertise hair transplants!!!!!!!!!!

bro we get you are frustrated, it can clearly be seen but you CANNOT make accusations and say bad things about a practice without proof, taking photos and showing us is not that hard, cover your face, eyes, etc if you do not want to be identified , its all good, but we cant take you seriously and help you, rally behind you if we have no idea what you are talking about . this is getting ridiculous . 

6 hours ago, HT0416 said:

My hairline has been botched by erdogan. I have lots of double hair grafts in hairline and hair graft angles are all placed wrong. Hairline shape is unnatural and very poor standard also the density was very poor standard 3000 grafts (70cm2) more like 30cm2.  Lucky for me i have a very good donar and hair behind transplant (for the time being).

Dont expect any after care 18 months onwards from Asmed, they ignore all calls and emails or respond 1-2 weeks later occasionally. Very poor after care. They botch your hairline, make you wait 18 months then ignore you if you still unhappy with final result.

I could tell i had a botched job 4 months post op.

email from dr in uk to repair my hairline -

1. Punch out a number of double hair grafts in the hairline and use further back into the scalp.

2. Add irregularity to hairline shape by placing single hairs through this area in front of hairline

3. Add greater density through the existing transplanted area and further back in the scalp.

 

The hairline will never be 100% perfect as the angles of the existing hairs cannot be influenced as there are too many to be able to do this. Dr is confident of a significant improvement.

 

Fine single hair grafts are selected for the hairline transition area and the grafts area graduated in density for a soft natural look in the immediate hairline, with the density built up behind this area

Wow, Sorry to hear about your experience. Do you have any photos for us to view? That would be very much appreciated.

48 minutes ago, Der3k7 said:

Koray does manual non motorized fue

My bad , you’re right. Does that make much of a difference in this day and age ?

59 minutes ago, markymarc123 said:

Good luck with Dr Acar. 

I haven't ruled out Koray yet but I have indeed noticed that there are certainly some more questionable results popping up in between the good results.  I wonder if this is due to an increase in patients per day.  I have also noticed his results don't look any better than Demirsoy/Keser but he is using many more grafts (in some cases).

I have been looking at Dr Demirsoy, (popular in the German forums) who does the extractions and incisions himself and has 1 patient a day and only 2 technicians. However, he does use a motorised drill for extractions.

There is a Scottish guy on Youtube who has a blog regarding his time at ASMED, which was very interesting...

Can you send me a link to this Scottish guys video ? Good or bad ? 

Koray was the only one that recommended I do 5000 grafts for my hair , the other 10 or so surgeons including some in Thailand all had me around the 3200 to 3500 mark . And since he doesn’t negotiate on the number of grafts I was looking at 12500 euros ... I brought up the fact  That I might not be able to afford , he didn’t show any flexibility. 

Demisroy’s name has popped up a couple of times ... but using a motorised punch beats the whole purpose of doing less patients , taking his time with them etc , no ? Koray does motorised also 

1 hour ago, markymarc123 said:

This thread reeks of sales tactics by this doctor.

I just had a look on the german forums and this so called great doctor has some awful reviews.

Which doctor ? Please explain ?

12 hours ago, Der3k7 said:

They just assured me that all the techs are skilled and experienced to do a good job

well I guess they cant say otherwise. Good luck with it all brother. I have decided to go with Dr Acar, didnt see much difference between his results and Koray. but a third of the price. and Cosmedica has made a name for themselves over past couple of years. Keep us updated on your progress.

On 4/20/2018 at 6:35 AM, JeanLDD said:

 

I wouldn't say they're "top" surgeons, just fairly well known Turkish surgeons with large bodies of competent work at very cheap prices ($2-3000) for a procedure. Work that fares well compared to the average FUE surgeon worldwide, including the US despite the price.

well said 

so have you had the surgery with Dr cinik?

how did it all go?

no updates on this? he just said he really recommends and then disappeared?

On 8/27/2018 at 1:50 PM, Der3k7 said:

I just emailed the rep that I communicate with and I'm asking about the recent change in results and any tech changes over the past 2 years and am concerned about the results from surgeries the past 6 to 9 months and what will be the experience of the techs working on me? And insisted that I have the techs with the highest skill set and experience working on me. I'm getting 5000 grafts I'm not about to waste my money and 5000 of the remaining 8600 grafts he says I have remaining. 

So did they get back to you?

8 hours ago, Bill - Managing Publisher said:

 I’m confused, it seems like a number of new members have taken the liberty of asking brand new questions on this topic. I ask that any members who have posted here starting a new topic or who wants personal responses to their concerns to create their own topic rather than piggybacking off of this one. 

 This topic is reserved to discuss @Der3k7‘s  questions and situation. 

Best wishes,

Bill

Hi Bill, I did begin a topic rather similar to this and did not receive much love if any at all.

19 hours ago, FarsanUk said:

My surgery is in October, 5 weeks away so I do not have before and after photos. I understand the negative aspects but to be honest 1 or 2 of the guys complaining are saying it unreasonably. I mean one guy is just 6 months post op and is having a mental breakdown over sprouting even though when I told him 6 months is far too early to make judgement (and that is a fact any surgeon or expert will tell you.) He said that's the first he has heard of that fact. People panic too early and bash the clinic without giving it a full year to assess and conclude. His growth percentage rates have always been good and now that he has microscopes from this year for hairline singles I suspect any doubt over hairline quality would be elmintated but we all won't see those results in till sufficient time has passed. 

I appreciate where you're coming from. given with a clinic like his, it's his technical team that does the bulk of the work, so just make sure you have an idea of the team that would be working on you before your procedure, wether there is any new team members, if so how long they have been in the industry etc. This would also give you peace of mind. I was about to book it in with erdogen, then started looking into cosmedica  dr Acar who's reputation is no where as extensive as Dr erdogen, yet results produced are quite good, same level as Erdogen, but around 8,000 pounds cheaper... I guess this is a decision that I need to make.

40 minutes ago, Der3k7 said:

I just emailed the rep that I communicate with and I'm asking about the recent change in results and any tech changes over the past 2 years and am concerned about the results from surgeries the past 6 to 9 months and what will be the experience of the techs working on me? And insisted that I have the techs with the highest skill set and experience working on me. I'm getting 5000 grafts I'm not about to waste my money and 5000 of the remaining 8600 grafts he says I have remaining. 

Can you please let me know of their reply ? Cheers

On ‎8‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 11:55 AM, Der3k7 said:

Wow look at this great asmed result

 

This was done 2 years ago, I think surgeries performed 1 year ago owards would be more suitable to our discussion.

On ‎8‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 10:51 AM, Der3k7 said:

So you dont think the recent posts with questionable results are something to worry about considering the numerous great results hes had over the years?

Yes I would like an answer to this question as well if possible as i am in the exact same predicament. Cheers.

On ‎8‎/‎24‎/‎2018 at 10:52 AM, Der3k7 said:

I have a surgery scheduled with him in early November for 5000 grafts. I went with him because he is always mentioned as being one of the absolute best for manual fue. But I have seen a couple of threads where the ASMED patient had not so good results and wasnt satisfied. What is the current general consensus of ASMED?

Hey Bud, I am in the same boat as you, I was basically all but going to book it with them, but given recent results, negative feedback etc, I am having second thoughts, I have put it down to changes made to his tech team, etc.... now considering other, cheaper alternatives in Turkey that look like will give me the same results.